On Wednesday, the defence ministers of Pakistan, Türkiye, Qatar and Indonesia signed a memorandum of understanding called “Badr” in Doha. According to the Qatari news agency, the name refers to the full moon, meaning that the four countries complement one another.
The name is beautiful. Only time will tell whether the moon is truly full or whether we still have to wait for the fourteenth night.
The question arose: if Pakistan and Türkiye are already bound by the Makkah Agreement, what was the need for another bond? The answer is simple. The Makkah Agreement is a marriage, while Badr is an engagement ring. Under Makkah, an attack on one is considered an attack on all, whereas Badr has merely established how the countries will jointly manufacture tanks, aircraft and spare parts. Experts say the same: one is collective defence, while the other is cooperation in the defence industry. One involves a promise to lay down one's life, while the other involves the exchange of technology.
Indonesia has formally clarified that this is not a military alliance but an industrial partnership. In other words, the bride's family tells everyone beforehand that the wedding procession is not coming; they are only coming over for tea.
Türkiye has NATO's second-largest army and a strong defence industry. Pakistan has experience, manpower and nuclear weapons. Indonesia has a large population and a big market. And what does Qatar have? The same thing that always comes in handy at big gatherings: money. One analyst also said that Qatar does not have a large defence industrial structure, so it will primarily provide financial support.
If one party brings a factory to a project, another brings expertise, a third brings a market and the fourth brings a cheque book, things could work out. The only condition is that the cheque must clear and the factory must actually be built. Neither has always been easy in our region.
The host of the Makkah Agreement was not seen at the Badr ceremony. Riyadh has also not issued any official statement so far. Experts say there is no reason to be upset about this. Saudi Arabia may prefer bilateral agreements, or its attention may be focused on issues such as Yemen. Here, however, even silence is treated as a statement, and the task of interpreting it is always handed over to television studios.
All this aside, the real question remains the one that comes to mind with every new agreement: who will benefit from it, and when?
One analyst pointed out that relations among the four countries are not the same either. Defence contacts between Indonesia and Pakistan are limited, and there have also occasionally been policy differences with Qatar over Afghanistan. The ink on the agreement has not even dried yet, and we have already started dreaming of joint tanks and naval ships.
The history of memorandums of understanding is that some turn into factories, while others end up in files. The latter outcome is more common, and its advantage is that it causes no loss.
The moon of Badr is a good omen. Just pray that it does not begin to wane after becoming full.
Note: The views expressed by the blogger do not necessarily reflect the views of the organisation. — Editor
