Planning and Development Minister Ahsan Iqbal has proposed creating 12 to 15 new provinces in Pakistan and urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to establish a committee to review the country’s administrative structure.
“I have proposed that a committee be made on administrative reforms through the law minister that can at least start a national and political debate on what can and cannot be done,” Iqbal told The News. “At the end of the day, you need to build a political consensus to do this [create new provinces].”
Iqbal said he was waiting for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to return from Kyrgyzstan before discussing the proposal with him.
His comments come as the decades-old debate over Pakistan’s provincial structure has resurfaced. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi raised the issue in July, while Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Director General Lt Gen Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry called for a serious debate on the matter a day later.
Iqbal said Pakistan’s four provinces had become increasingly centralised and monopolistic, contributing to weaknesses in the delivery of public services such as healthcare and education.
“I would say we need 12-15 new provinces,” he said, suggesting that each of the existing provinces could be divided into three. However, he stressed that the process would require an equitable formula to prevent major changes in political representation.
“For example, if Punjab is divided into three provinces, its share will increase in the Senate,” Iqbal said. “If you want to create new provinces, it has to be based on some equitable formula that does not change the representation too drastically in one direction.”
However, there is currently no formal federal process underway.
Rana Ihsaan Afzal Khan, coordinator to the prime minister, told The News that no decision had been taken on creating new provinces or administrative units.
“No such committee has been made at the federal level. There is no such talk on any forum officially,” he said.
He added that if new provinces were created, they would likely be established for the next election cycle.
An old debate returns
Pakistan currently has four provinces, two autonomous territories and one federal capital territory. Political parties and regional groups have periodically called for the creation of additional provinces for decades.
The latest debate began on July 30, when Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi argued that Pakistan’s existing governance structure was no longer effective.
During a televised address in Islamabad, Naqvi said the country’s governance system had “collapsed” and had been dragged along for more than 70 years.
He proposed creating new administrative units or provinces as a way of addressing governance problems.
The following day, the ISPR director general also called for a serious discussion on the proposal.
“If the population has increased by fourfold and you still have four provinces, then we have to see if this is serving good governance,” he said while speaking to reporters.
The remarks sparked strong opposition, particularly in Sindh, where nationalist parties have long resisted attempts to divide the province.
Since August 12, nationalist parties have held near-daily demonstrations and launched campaigns against any move to split Sindh.
“No child would want their mother to be divided into two… We want one Sindh,” Ayaz Latif Palijo, president of the Sindh-based Qaumi Awami Tehreek, told The News.
Opposition has also come from within mainstream political circles.
Punjab Information Minister Azma Bokhari described Naqvi’s remarks as “unserious about a serious issue”.
This week, Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Nisar Khuhro strongly opposed the proposal in the Sindh Assembly, saying Sindh was both his “body and soul”.
Smaller provinces, better government?
The idea of creating smaller provinces is not new. Proposals to establish a separate South Punjab province and a Hazara province in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been discussed for years.
In 2020, the previous government established a South Punjab civil secretariat in Multan, a move widely viewed as a potential step towards creating a province comprising the Multan, Bahawalpur and Dera Ghazi Khan divisions.
However, whether smaller administrative units would actually improve governance remains contested.
Umair Javed, who teaches politics and sociology at the Lahore University of Management Sciences, said academic research on the relationship between the size of administrative units and governance was inconclusive. However, he said it generally suggested that smaller units could give people greater access to political power and bring decision-making closer to local communities.
“It is not just about governance that has been devolved, it is also about governance that is increasing accountability,” Javed said. “In the absence of accountability, devolved governance can lead to elite capture.”
He said the debate was therefore not simply about how many provinces Pakistan should have, but also about where political and administrative power should be concentrated.
Last month, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif proposed placing Karachi in Sindh and Gwadar in Balochistan under federal control rather than creating them as separate provinces.
Javed said such a move would primarily benefit the federal government financially without necessarily addressing governance problems at the municipal level.
“This would become very beneficial to the federal government because the taxes they collect from these territories, especially from Karachi, will go directly into the federal pool,” he said. “But the federal government does not have the mandate or the capacity to improve governance at a municipal level.”
The price of a new map
Even if political consensus were achieved, creating new provinces would carry significant financial and administrative costs.
Pakistan’s fiscal space remains constrained. The country narrowly avoided default in 2023 after securing a $3 billion International Monetary Fund bailout programme, followed by a $7 billion Extended Fund Facility. The economy continues to face high debt, inflation and weak growth.
Every new province would require elections and new institutions, including a chief minister’s office, provincial assembly and high court. Government departments and bureaucratic structures would also have to be established, creating additional costs for salaries, infrastructure and administration.
“The country is fairly constrained in terms of the amount of spending that it can do,” Javed said. “When we create new administrative units and replicate provincial governing structures, it will entail a pretty significant cost.”
Redrawing the administrative map would also raise difficult questions about the distribution of water, land, natural resources and federal funds.
Water could prove particularly contentious.
Pakistan’s four provinces have established shares under the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord. Any division of an existing province would raise questions about how its allocation should be distributed among successor provinces.
Who gains?
Critics argue that the debate is not only about administrative efficiency but also about political power and control over resources.
Dr Sorath Sindhu, a political activist in Karachi, said similar proposals had emerged in the past, particularly during periods of military rule.
“We think this is the same old dream they [the establishment] are trying to bring again,” she said.
The political stakes are high because Pakistan’s major political parties have strong provincial constituencies, with the country’s three major parties currently governing different provinces.
Javed said the debate could potentially weaken the position of mainstream political parties.
“This conflict in some ways plays into the hands of the establishment,” he said. “Because now they [the establishment] are setting the terms of the debate that we through coercion are bringing a new thing, so you [political parties] bargain with us. What else are you willing to concede?”
