US President Donald Trump will remain in the White House for another two years, but his Republican Party has lost control of both chambers of Congress following the November 2026 midterm elections. The Democrats’ victory is expected to increase scrutiny of Trump's policies and could have implications for Washington's relations with countries including Pakistan.
During the presidency of Democratic leader Joe Biden, relations between Pakistan and the United States remained largely distant. Neither a Pakistani official was invited to the White House nor were there any notable telephone conversations between the two countries' leaders.
However, relations improved significantly after Trump began his second term. Following the military conflict between India and Pakistan, Islamabad credited Washington with playing an important role in securing a ceasefire.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif also credited Trump with saving millions of lives in South Asia. Relations between the two countries subsequently improved, with Field Marshal Asim Munir visiting the White House twice and Shehbaz Sharif making one visit.
In February 2026, following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, Pakistan also emerged as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. The two countries held negotiations in Islamabad for the first time in decades.
Although Trump will continue to serve as president, the Democrats' control of Congress is expected to create greater political and legislative challenges for his administration.
However, analysts monitoring Pakistan-US relations believe the political shift in Washington may have a limited impact on Islamabad, particularly because of Pakistan's growing diplomatic role in the Middle East.
Pakistan's role as a mediator in the Middle East
Analysts believe the war involving Iran has brought Pakistan closer to the United States, with Washington increasingly viewing Islamabad as a useful diplomatic partner.
Daniel Markey, a research fellow at the Stimson Center, said Pakistan had positioned itself as a useful partner for the White House, particularly through its role in facilitating important negotiations with Iran.
He believes Democrats in Congress also want the conflict to end quickly. If Pakistan can demonstrate its usefulness in achieving that objective, it could develop new allies on Capitol Hill.
In the past, US lawmakers have repeatedly raised concerns about democracy, human rights and the balance of power between civilian and military institutions in Pakistan. However, Markey believes these issues may not be a major priority for Democrats at present.
According to him, most Democratic lawmakers and senators are more interested in ending the war with Iran than examining how another country manages its internal affairs.
However, Dr Muhammad Shoaib, an assistant professor at Quaid-i-Azam University who researches US politics and Pakistan's foreign policy, believes Democratic lawmakers will continue raising concerns about human rights and the military's growing influence in Pakistani politics.
He said Democrats would continue making critical remarks about Pakistan, not necessarily because Islamabad was a major priority for them, but because the issue aligned with their political agenda.
Nevertheless, Shoaib agrees that Pakistan's role as a mediator between Iran and the United States could help Islamabad maintain close relations with Washington.
Can a Democratic-controlled Congress influence Pakistan?
For decades, Pakistan's foreign policy was often described through the expression of the three As: Allah, Army and America.
However, both analysts believe Pakistan's dependence on the United States has declined over the years, making it less vulnerable to political changes in Washington.
Dr Shoaib said Pakistan's internal weaknesses still made the country sensitive to international developments, including political changes in the United States. However, he expects the impact to be relatively limited this time.
He said Pakistan's dependence on Washington during the Cold War and the war on terror had largely ended, while American influence over Islamabad had also declined.
China is another factor behind this changing relationship.
According to Shoaib, the US Congress could influence Pakistan's efforts to purchase advanced military aircraft. However, he said Pakistan was increasingly looking towards China to meet its requirements for modern fighter jets.
He added that existing F-16 aircraft were unlikely to face the same level of congressional scrutiny.
Markey also agreed that Congress could delay or reject major arms agreements and military assistance packages. However, he said these issues were not currently among the administration's immediate priorities.
He added that security cooperation, diplomatic engagement and intelligence sharing largely remained within the executive branch's authority rather than Congress's direct control.
Could Pakistan-US relations change under Trump?
Despite Trump's public praise for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and his close relationship with Field Marshal Asim Munir, analysts warn that the current understanding between Islamabad and Washington could change.
Markey said relations between the two countries were not based on strong institutional ties but were largely driven by personalities and mutual interests.
He described the relationship as a working arrangement between Trump and Field Marshal Asim Munir.
According to Markey, these ties could change significantly when Trump leaves office, or even earlier if his views change or he loses patience with Pakistan.
He believes Islamabad does not necessarily need to reconsider its entire policy towards Washington but should look for additional partners within the US political system.
Markey warned that Trump's close relationship with Pakistan and Islamabad's public expressions of admiration for the US president could create suspicion or even a negative reaction among many Democratic lawmakers.
Dr Shoaib also advised Pakistani policymakers to recognise the changing political balance in Washington.
He said Pakistan needed to understand that Trump was now in a much weaker political position than before.
He suggested that Islamabad should reduce its excessive focus on Trump's personality and praise for the US president, and instead place greater emphasis on strengthening and promoting broader institutional relations between Pakistan and the United States.
The central question for Islamabad, therefore, is whether it can maintain its current diplomatic engagement with Washington while building relationships beyond the White House and across the changing political landscape in the United States.
