According to Agence France-Presse (AFP), advanced AI models are moving beyond answering questions based on available information to generating questions about future events and estimating the likelihood of different outcomes. These systems can also analyse factors that may not appear directly connected, such as changes in oil prices and the potential impact of conflicts in the Middle East.
Dan Schwarz, co-founder of prediction company FutureSearch, said traditional decision-making methods could appear outdated by 2030 compared with today's approaches. He said AI models were analysing large amounts of public and private information and, in some cases, performing at a level comparable to human experts.
AI Models Perform Well in Prediction Competitions
According to the report, two AI models secured first and second place in the Metaculus Cup competition in early September. The competition compares the forecasting performance of humans and AI-based systems.
Such results reflect growing interest in AI-powered forecasting. However, strong performance in a competition does not mean AI can accurately predict every situation. Political decisions, sudden crises and unexpected developments can all affect future events and make forecasts inaccurate.
AI Adoption in Financial Markets
The use of AI forecasting is also expanding in the financial sector. According to AFP, some hedge funds are using AI to support investment decisions, while AI systems are playing a growing role in stock market analysis and trading platforms based on future outcomes.
These systems can rapidly analyse large volumes of financial data, market trends and other relevant information to help investors identify potential opportunities and risks. This may speed up decision-making, but investing on the basis of forecasts still carries the risk of financial losses.
Experts have warned that smaller investors without access to expensive AI tools could find it increasingly difficult to compete. Large financial institutions with more advanced technology and better access to information may gain an advantage over investors with limited resources.
Governments and Businesses Also Turn to AI
AI forecasting is no longer limited to investment. According to the report, governments are using these technologies to support policymaking, businesses to develop future strategies, researchers to assist scientific studies and insurance companies to assess potential risks.
Governments, for example, can use AI to estimate the possible effects of economic and social policies. Businesses can analyse changes in demand, costs and market trends to improve their planning and decision-making.
The British government has also used the services of a forecasting company, according to the report.
These technologies may help organisations identify potential problems earlier and prepare for different scenarios. However, the quality of forecasts depends on the information available, the capabilities of the AI model and the methods used to analyse the data.
Concerns Over AI's Growing Predictive Power
Despite improvements in AI forecasting, experts have also raised concerns about potential risks, including unequal access to advanced systems and differences in technological capabilities between countries.
If some countries or institutions gain access to more powerful AI systems and larger amounts of information, they could strengthen their advantages in financial markets, business competition and strategic decision-making.
Overreliance on inaccurate AI predictions could also lead to harmful decisions.
AI is increasingly becoming a tool for understanding possible future scenarios and supporting better decisions. However, it does not provide certain knowledge of the future. Instead, it estimates probabilities based on available information.
Experts stress that AI forecasts should therefore be assessed alongside human expertise, careful analysis of circumstances and other reliable information.
