Israel’s upcoming elections could shape the country’s future policy towards Palestinians, including the prospects for peace in Gaza and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.

Former Israeli Justice Minister Yossi Beilin has told Al Jazeera that a new Israeli government could make progress towards Palestinian statehood by implementing US President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan for ending the war in Gaza. However, he said the outcome would depend on whether the next government takes practical steps to support the proposal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party and its allies face opposition parties with differing positions on Palestinian statehood, Gaza’s future and Israel’s security policies.

Under Israel’s parliamentary system, a government needs the support of at least 61 members of the 120-seat Knesset. This means that the ability to form a governing coalition, rather than simply winning the most seats, will be crucial in determining the country’s political direction.

Can a new government support Palestinian statehood?

Beilin has expressed hope that a government led by centrist and left-wing parties could help create a path towards Palestinian statehood and renewed peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians.

According to Beilin, these parties support Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan, which includes the possibility of progress towards establishing a Palestinian state, even though they do not frequently speak publicly about statehood.

He said their willingness to implement the proposal would become clearer over time. If they reject the idea of Palestinian statehood, the policy of a new government may not differ significantly from that of the current administration.

However, if they pursue the path outlined in Trump’s plan, it could represent a major shift in Israeli policy.

What does Trump’s Gaza plan propose?

Trump presented his 20-point plan in September 2025 as a framework for ending the war in Gaza. Its proposals include a ceasefire, the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, increased humanitarian assistance and a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces.

The plan also proposes a temporary administration for Gaza led by a committee of Palestinian technocrats, reconstruction of the territory and excluding Hamas from Gaza’s governing structure.

Other provisions address the demilitarisation of Gaza and rule out Israeli occupation or annexation of the territory. The plan also refers to creating a credible pathway towards Palestinian self-determination and statehood following reforms to the Palestinian Authority.

However, the inclusion of statehood in the proposal does not guarantee its implementation. Political support from Israel’s next government and concrete decisions on the ground will be critical.

Israeli settlements remain a major obstacle

One of the biggest challenges to establishing a viable Palestinian state is the expansion of Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank, alongside restrictions on Palestinian movement and the fragmentation of Palestinian territory.

According to United Nations reporting, plans for approximately 47,390 housing units in the occupied West Bank were advanced, approved or tendered in 2025. A large proportion were in Area C and East Jerusalem.

The UN has warned that settlement expansion further fragments Palestinian territory and undermines the possibility of establishing an independent Palestinian state with a continuous geographic area.

Under the Oslo Accords of the 1990s, the West Bank was divided into Areas A, B and C, with different levels of Palestinian and Israeli authority.

Area A is administered by the Palestinian Authority, including responsibility for internal security. In Area B, the Palestinian Authority manages civilian affairs, while Israel retains overriding security authority. Area C, which covers approximately 60 per cent of the West Bank and contains all Israeli settlements, remains under Israeli control for security, planning and construction matters.

This arrangement leaves many Palestinian communities geographically separated from one another.

In Hebron, also known as Al-Khalil, the H2 area is a prominent example. Around 7,000 Palestinians live there alongside several hundred Israeli settlers, while strict movement restrictions affect Palestinians in certain parts of the area.

UN figures also recorded 925 permanent or temporary movement obstacles across the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, as of December 2025. These restrictions affect access to education, healthcare, employment and other essential services for approximately 3.4 million Palestinians.

Any meaningful change in Israeli policy would therefore involve more than political statements about statehood. It would also require decisions concerning settlement expansion, territorial control, freedom of movement and connections between Palestinian communities.

Gaza’s humanitarian crisis continues

The debate over Israel’s political future comes amid the continuing humanitarian consequences of the war in Gaza.

According to figures from Gaza’s Health Ministry cited in the report, at least 74,494 Palestinians had been killed and 175,604 injured since October 2023.

The ministry reported seven additional deaths and 24 injuries in the preceding 24 hours. Since the ceasefire, it said, 1,534 Palestinians had been killed and 5,486 injured, while the bodies of 846 people had been recovered from beneath the rubble.

The figures underline the scale of the humanitarian crisis and the challenges facing any future ceasefire, reconstruction effort or political settlement.

What happens next?

The next Israeli government’s position on Palestinian statehood could prove decisive in determining whether Trump’s Gaza plan leads to meaningful political change or remains largely a diplomatic framework.

A shift towards supporting Palestinian statehood would mark a significant departure from the current approach. However, differences among opposition parties, the formation of a governing coalition and the practical questions surrounding settlements and territorial control could all limit the scope for change.

Ultimately, whether a new Israeli government can turn the prospect of Palestinian statehood into reality will depend not only on its public commitments but also on the policies it adopts and the steps it takes on the ground.