Iranian officials and senior sources say Khamenei remains firmly in control, governing from behind the scenes because of security concerns while delegating day-to-day responsibilities to senior officials.
Sources say he continues to hold meetings with top political and military figures, receives key reports and has the final say on major decisions.
President Masoud Pezeshkian said on August 10 that he had held a seven-hour meeting with Khamenei, while Iranian officials insist that the supreme leader remains actively involved in policymaking.
However, his prolonged absence has increasingly raised concerns even among supporters of Iran’s ruling system.
A member of the Basij militia in the city of Qom said that Iranians needed to hear Khamenei’s voice or see evidence that he was present and leading the country, arguing that his absence was hurting public morale.
Among reform-minded Iranians and opponents of the ruling establishment, doubts are more pronounced, with some questioning whether Khamenei is alive and actively involved in decision-making.
Khamenei’s absence is largely attributed to security concerns. A senior Iranian official said only a limited number of officials have direct contact with him, as authorities fear that information about his location could be leaked and potentially expose him to further attacks.
A person close to Khamenei’s inner circle said his health was improving significantly and described him as mentally sharp and involved in major decisions.
The supreme leader assumed power after his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed during Israeli and US airstrikes that launched the war on February 28. Senior Iranian sources have said Mojtaba Khamenei was also seriously injured in the attacks.
Iran’s political system has nevertheless remained intact despite the loss of its previous supreme leader and several senior military commanders.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has emerged as an increasingly influential force within the country’s reconfigured power structure. Senior Guards commanders, President Pezeshkian and parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf are among the key figures involved in strategic decision-making.
Iran is also facing severe economic pressure as a result of the conflict and disruptions to oil exports. The crisis has weakened the country’s currency and increased concerns over renewed public unrest.
Analysts say Khamenei’s continued absence could become increasingly problematic as Iran faces major decisions over the war and its relations with the United States.
Middle East expert Alex Vatanka said any major agreement with Washington, as well as a decision to continue a prolonged conflict with the US, would require the supreme leader’s clear approval.
He warned that Khamenei’s prolonged absence could create uncertainty within the leadership, allowing rival factions to claim different interpretations of what the supreme leader wants.
