US Forces Withdraw from Iraq After Two Decades, Benefit for Iran?

According to Reuters, Iraqi security analysts have warned that the US withdrawal could increase the influence of Iran backed armed groups in Iraq and potentially give Islamic State militants an opportunity to regroup.

Iraqi security analyst Jassim al-Bahadli said the withdrawal of the US-led coalition would provide a strategic advantage to Iran, as the US military presence had served as an important obstacle to Tehran’s influence in Iraq.

Iran-backed groups are expected to portray the withdrawal as a victory and seek greater influence over security and political decisions, according to the report.

Abu Mujtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq alliance, described the withdrawal as a historic victory for Iraqi resistance groups and the Iraqi people.

The current withdrawal is taking place under an agreement reached in 2024 during the administration of former US President Joe Biden, with implementation continuing under President Donald Trump.

The US first invaded Iraq in 2003 and helped overthrow Saddam Hussein's government. American troops withdrew at the end of 2011 but returned in 2014 after the rise of Islamic State. US-led coalition forces then supported Iraqi forces in operations against the group between 2014 and 2017.

Iraq now faces the challenge of taking greater responsibility for its own security while concerns remain over the influence of Iran-backed groups and the possible resurgence of Islamic State.

Some Iraqi officials have also warned that the country may not yet be fully prepared to take over all security responsibilities. Tribal leader Abdulrahman al-Zubaie said Iraqis want full sovereignty but feared that the withdrawal could create a security vacuum.

Iran has welcomed the departure of US forces. Amir Hayat Moghaddam, deputy head of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee, said the withdrawal would help establish lasting security in Iraq.

Meanwhile, Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani warned that the absence of US intelligence, logistical support and drones could give Islamic State cells an opportunity to reorganize.