One anchor immediately fired off the question: “Is this a deal or just a little breathing room?” As if politics were some kind of crossword puzzle. One journalist, citing “sources,” said it was merely a routine medical check-up. Another swore that it was the first step towards his release. Both could be right, and both could be wrong, because in this country, news is rarely just news. It is usually treated as a signal.
This is hardly the first time. There was the occasional trip to PIMS supposedly for an eye check-up, and then rumours of a possible transfer to Islamabad, which the government promptly denied. As if a denial itself were a form of confirmation. Now there is a written order from the Supreme Court, the jail administration says arrangements have been completed, and the minister has assured everyone that the order will be implemented in full. As though, until now, orders have always been followed in precisely that manner neither half heartedly nor halfway.
What an interesting coincidence: the very day the transfer news broke, analysts began suggesting that the September 27 long march was now looking increasingly unlikely. Relief on one side, the heat of the streets cooling on the other. Coincidence, or the same old formula, when pressure builds, open a small valve and let some of the steam out?
Meanwhile, Jamaat-e-Islami's sit-ins continue across all four provinces over petrol and bread prices. The party chief has declared, “We have not come here to leave.” The question, then, is whether this is a rebellion against the system, or simply a space being filled because the silence of the major political parties has left a vacuum.
When a close aide of Nawaz Sharif was asked about Imran Khan's transfer to hospital, the response was that “another conspiracy against the Nawaz Sharif government” had taken place. Here, conspiracies happen rather quickly and so do deals.
We have seen this script before: Bushra Bibi's tears in court, complaints against lawyers, the “blanket is ready in the car,” breathing difficulties, arm pain, medical boards, falling platelet counts. Then comes the hospital room, which gradually turns into a hub for political meetings. Finally, one morning, the news breaks that the departure has begun. It feels like the next episode of the same old drama, only with a slightly different cast.
The establishment's predicament remains much the same. The system has to keep running. There are IMF conditions, foreign debt and the need to maintain an internal balance. Everything is tied together by the same thread. On one side is the shelter of the courts; on the other, the heat of protests, which eventually cools around the negotiating table. Those who see a pattern in all this say this is where all the threads meet. Nothing is ever proven. Only the sequence of events invites questions.
One thing, however, is certain: politics here does not move in a straight line. It moves in circles. And at every turn, we are assured that this time something new is going to happen.
And yet, we sit in front of our television screens again even though we already know how the ending goes.
Written by: Azhar Thiraj
Note: The views expressed by the blogger are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of the institution. — Editor
