The power of nuclear weapons lies not only in their use but also in their existence. A country possessing a nuclear capability can influence the military and political decisions of its rivals. This is why a potential Iranian nuclear capability could affect the security balance across the Middle East.
Israel could face one of the most significant consequences of Iran acquiring a nuclear capability. Israel has long described Iran’s nuclear programme as a serious national security threat and has carried out military operations against Iranian nuclear facilities. The International Atomic Energy Agency has documented attacks on several Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and 2026.
If Iran were to acquire a credible nuclear capability, the risks surrounding any future Israeli military action could change significantly. An Israeli strike on Iran might not remain limited to damaging nuclear facilities and could instead trigger a wider regional conflict, particularly if Tehran viewed the attack as a threat to its survival and responded militarily.
Such a situation could force Israel to reconsider its defence strategy. The cost and risks of direct military action against Iran would increase, while the consequences of miscalculation during a crisis between the two countries could become far more serious.
Iran’s potential nuclear capability could also have major implications for Gulf countries. Saudi Arabia has long regarded Iran as a major regional rival, and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has previously said that Saudi Arabia would seek nuclear weapons if Iran acquired them. Reuters reported in July 2026 that concerns over potential proliferation were part of the debate surrounding a US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement.
This does not mean Saudi Arabia would immediately begin developing nuclear weapons if Iran acquired them. However, an Iranian nuclear capability could influence Saudi defence priorities, its reliance on external security guarantees and its approach to developing its own nuclear capabilities.
Saudi Arabia has previously expressed concern over Iran’s nuclear programme while also supporting efforts to establish a Middle East free of nuclear weapons.
The impact of an Iranian nuclear capability would not be limited to Israel and Saudi Arabia. Other major regional countries, including Turkey and Egypt, could also reassess their security strategies.
If a new nuclear power emerged in the Middle East, other countries could reconsider existing defence arrangements, alliances and external security guarantees. Conventional weapons, missile defence systems and long-range missile capabilities could also become more important.
The effects of nuclear proliferation have been seen in other regions. During the Cold War, the nuclear arms race between the United States and the Soviet Union transformed the global balance of power.
In South Asia, India’s nuclear tests were followed by Pakistan’s nuclear tests in 1998, creating a nuclear balance between the two countries.
Similarly, North Korea’s nuclear programme has changed the security environment in East Asia and prompted regional countries to reassess their defence policies and military capabilities.
The Iranian nuclear issue could be particularly complex because of the existing tensions between Iran and Israel. Several regional countries, including Saudi Arabia, view Iran’s growing influence through the lens of their own security interests, while the presence of armed groups across the region could make any major conflict even more complicated.
In such a situation, one country acquiring a nuclear capability would not simply change the balance of power between two states. It could influence defence decisions across the wider region.
Iranian nuclear weapons, if developed, would therefore represent more than the addition of another type of weapon. Their existence could affect Israel’s military planning, Saudi Arabia’s security policy and the defence decisions of other Middle Eastern countries.
If several countries began linking their security to one another’s nuclear capabilities, the balance of power in the Middle East could change again.
That change could begin even before a nuclear weapon is ever used, because the mere possession of nuclear capabilities can influence military decisions, alliances and national security policies.
