Israel election deadlock: Four possible scenarios as Netanyahu and rival blocs tie

Exit polls from three major Israeli television networks projected around 51 seats for each bloc in the 120-member Knesset, leaving both short of the 61 seats required to form a majority government.

The results also indicated significant gains for Arab Israeli parties, which were projected to win a combined 17 or 18 seats.

With neither major bloc appearing to have a clear path to power, four possible scenarios could shape Israel’s political future.

Coalition negotiations

Political parties are expected to begin negotiations to secure the 61 seats needed to form a government. However, neither bloc has an obvious route to a parliamentary majority.

President Isaac Herzog will designate the candidate he believes has the best chance of forming a government, which may not necessarily be the leader of the party with the most seats.

Arab Israeli parties, particularly Raam, have indicated they could cooperate with Eisenkot’s bloc. However, the opposition alliance kept its distance from them during the campaign, viewing their support as a potential political liability.

Netanyahu’s bloc faces a different challenge, as several smaller right-wing parties failed to cross the electoral threshold required to enter parliament, limiting its options for securing additional seats.

Coalition negotiations in Israel can be lengthy and complicated, with parties seeking concessions to protect their own political interests. The resulting governments can also be unstable.

After the November 2022 election, Netanyahu took 58 days to form a government.

Minority government

If neither bloc secures a majority, a candidate could attempt to govern without controlling 61 seats, relying instead on support from other lawmakers on individual votes.

In such a scenario, Arab Israeli parties could play a decisive role. Their community accounts for around 20% of Israel’s population and generally identifies as Palestinian.

Raam, led by Mansour Abbas, has previously played a pivotal role in government formation. It became the first Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition when it participated in the government led by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021-2022.

The Joint List, another Arab political alliance, has said it would be unlikely to join a coalition directly but has offered to provide a parliamentary “safety net” to a government that removes Netanyahu from power.

Political commentator Tal Elovitz said the particularly high turnout among Arab voters indicated a strong desire for political partnership.

Eisenkot has not publicly embraced the possibility of relying on Arab parties to govern. Netanyahu, meanwhile, repeatedly warned Jewish voters during his campaign that supporting the opposition could lead to Arab parties entering government.

Elovitz said a minority government led by Eisenkot remained a possibility, although the final outcome could change as official results emerge.

National unity government

A national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot could offer another way out of the deadlock, although Israel’s deep political divisions make such an arrangement difficult.

Under this scenario, Netanyahu could abandon his far-right and ultra-Orthodox coalition partners and form a broad government with Eisenkot, who shares some of his positions on security matters.

Such an arrangement would also exclude Arab parties from the governing coalition.

A poll published on October 16 found that 55% of Israelis would prefer a national unity government to another election if the vote failed to produce a clear majority.

There is a precedent for such an arrangement. In 2020, Netanyahu and former general Benny Gantz agreed to share power after Israel held three elections in less than a year.

Their agreement included a rotation of the prime minister’s office, but the partnership collapsed after about a year, triggering another election.

Any new unity government would face opposition from both political camps, particularly Eisenkot’s supporters, whose campaign has focused on removing Netanyahu from office and questioning his suitability to lead the country.

Political deadlock and fresh elections

If no candidate succeeds in forming a government, Israel could be forced to hold another election.

The country held four elections between April 2019 and March 2021 as political leaders struggled to establish a stable governing coalition.

Under the usual procedure, the candidate selected by the president has 28 days to form a government, with a possible 14-day extension. Other parliamentary procedures can also affect the timing of a new election.

The close result leaves Israel facing another period of political negotiations, with the balance of power likely to depend on coalition deals and the final distribution of seats.