Even as Trump’s recent visit to Asia sparked tentative progress in trade talks with industrial giants like China and South Korea, exporters remain wary, sensing that America’s appetite for imports is cooling faster than expected.
Fresh Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for October revealed a mixed picture: manufacturing growth slowed notably in China and shrank in South Korea, with export orders in both economies sliding further.
China’s official PMI on Friday confirmed the downturn — factory activity contracted for the seventh straight month, underscoring that the earlier export surge aimed at front-running U.S. tariffs has now run its course.
The latest PMI readings suggest that China’s economy lost some momentum in October, with slower growth across both manufacturing and construction, noted Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics. While part of this weakness could reverse soon, any lift to exports from the latest U.S.-China trade ‘deal’ will likely be modest, as broader headwinds to growth remain firmly in place.
During a meeting in South Korea last week, President Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to tone down their tariff skirmish — including a one-year suspension of reciprocal duties. Yet, analysts say the accord merely pauses the friction, without bridging the deeper rift between the world’s two largest economies.
In Beijing, policymakers are closely watching whether China’s $19 trillion economy can stay on track to hit its 2025 growth target of around 5%, without turning again to large-scale stimulus.
Trade figures for September showed China’s exports rising faster than expected, but this momentum was largely powered by new markets — shipments to the U.S. plunged 27% year-on-year, exposing the cost of the ongoing trade chill.
South Korea, meanwhile, secured some relief through its freshly minted trade deal with Washington, which lowers U.S. tariffs on Korean goods. Yet, economists describe the outcome as a fragile compromise, one that merely prevents Asia’s fourth-largest economy from slipping further behind in the global race.
In a striking contrast, India’s factories gathered steam in October, fueled by robust domestic demand that helped cushion the blow to exports.
Elsewhere across Southeast Asia, the picture remained uneven. Malaysia and Taiwan saw further dips in factory output, according to PMI data, while Vietnam and Indonesia recorded modest rebounds, signaling that regional manufacturing momentum is diverging rather than disappearing.
Across Asia, the industrial pulse is faint but not flat. The region’s factories — long the engine of global trade — now find themselves navigating a new era of strategic uncertainty, where every tariff tweak or diplomatic gesture can tip the balance between recovery and relapse.
