Meteorologists say that weather patterns in Lahore and other parts of South Asia can be influenced by a massive climate phenomenon known as El Niño, a shift in ocean temperatures and winds in the Pacific Ocean that affects weather systems across the globe.

The Pacific Ocean, the world’s largest, contains warm water currents that help regulate global climate. When these currents shift, the effects can be extreme bringing floods to some regions while triggering droughts in others.

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a recurring climate pattern that develops when ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific rise unusually. Since the 1800s, around 25 major El Niño events have been recorded.

Each episode has historically disrupted weather systems worldwide, damaging crops, draining water resources and affecting millions of lives.

A History of Extreme Global Impact

One of the strongest El Niño events in recent history occurred in 1997–98. It triggered widespread forest fires in Indonesia, creating toxic haze that blanketed large parts of Southeast Asia.

Health studies linked the crisis to severe air pollution exposure, with reports estimating more than 15,000 infant and maternal deaths in Indonesia alone. Across Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, over 20 million people were affected by respiratory, eye and heart-related illnesses.

At the time, air quality dropped so sharply that exposure in some regions was described as equivalent to smoking dozens of cigarettes in a single day.

Meanwhile, countries like Peru and Ecuador faced devastating floods, while parts of Africa experienced disease outbreaks. The global economic damage from that single event was estimated at around $40 billion.

What Experts Expect in 2026–27

Climate monitoring agencies, including the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), have indicated the possibility of a moderate to strong El Niño event developing between 2026 and 2027.

If it intensifies, experts warn it could significantly influence weather patterns across Asia, including Pakistan.

Possible Impact on Pakistan and Lahore

In Pakistan, El Niño conditions are often associated with weaker monsoon rains, rising temperatures and increased chances of heatwaves.

For Lahore—already considered one of the world’s most polluted and heat-stressed urban centres the consequences could be more severe. Reduced rainfall can worsen water shortages, while prolonged heat spells place additional pressure on public health, agriculture and energy systems.

Temperature records highlight the trend. In May 2025, Lahore reportedly reached 48°C, while meteorological data suggests the city’s average temperature has risen by more than 2°C over the past three decades.

The Human Cost Behind the Heat

Climate impact is not evenly distributed. Those least equipped to handle extreme heat daily wage labourers, street vendors, transport workers and farmers bear the heaviest burden. Many work long hours outdoors with limited access to cooling systems or protection.

Experts stress that while El Niño is a natural climate cycle, the severity of its impacts is increasingly shaped by long-term environmental and policy choices. Rising urban temperatures, deforestation and greenhouse gas emissions are amplifying what would otherwise be temporary climate fluctuations.

Beyond Weather: A Long-Term Warning

Scientists emphasize that events like El Niño should not be viewed as isolated weather anomalies but as part of a broader, interconnected climate system.

As global temperatures continue to rise, the intensity of extreme weather events is expected to increase, making preparedness and climate resilience more urgent than ever.