According to experts and traders, Pakistan’s mango exports are expected to drop by at least 30 percent this year due to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, trade barriers with Iran and Afghanistan, and an unprecedented increase in shipping costs.

Pakistan is the world’s fourth largest mango exporter and normally earns about $110 million in foreign exchange from mango exports every year. However, the situation looks different this season.

Muhammad Shakeel, who oversees the Sindhuri mango orchards in Sindh’s Tando Allahyar district, says that the situation has become so bad that some contractors have even abandoned their advance payments and have terminated the orchard contracts.

He said that the losses have become so high that many contractors have abandoned their advance payments.

According to Waheed Ahmed, chief patron of the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporters Association, about 80 percent of Pakistan’s mangoes are exported to the Gulf countries, Iran and Afghanistan, but in recent months, all these regions have experienced some form of crisis or trade barriers.

According to him, mango exports this year are likely to be about 30,000 tons less than last year and will be 80,000 tons.

He said that the Afghan border is closed, tensions in Iran have been high and the entire Middle East has been unstable, which has had a direct impact on our exports.

Although the recent initial agreement brokered by Pakistan between the US and Iran is being welcomed, traders say the development comes too late for the current mango season and is unlikely to yield immediate benefits.

According to traders, the situation around the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions in shipping routes have led to an unprecedented increase in freight costs.

According to Waheed Ahmed, sending a container of 25 tonnes of mangoes abroad cost around $1,400 last year, while this year the same cost has increased to $6,000-7,000.

Due to the decline in exports, large quantities of mangoes are heading to local markets, which has significantly reduced prices. Mangoes are currently being sold in Karachi markets for around Rs200 per kg, which is almost half the price compared to last year.

Despite the low prices, local demand has not increased significantly due to the impact on the purchasing power of the people.

Karachi resident Muhammad Ashad says that mangoes are much cheaper than before, but people are still unable to buy them because the prices of other essential goods have increased significantly.

According to official data, the inflation rate in Pakistan increased from 5.5% to 10% in the three months following the Middle East crisis, which put additional pressure on the domestic budget.

Muhammad Shakeel says that people are currently busy fulfilling their basic needs. He raised the question, “Should people buy bread or mangoes first? Expenses are constantly increasing while income is not increasing.”

According to experts, the decline in mango exports could become a challenge not only for the agricultural sector but also for the overall economy of Pakistan, which is already facing the effects of climate change, inflation and regional geopolitical crises.