India relaunches 'water war', violates IWT by manipulating Chenab flows

According to officials, the administration of Prime Minister Narendra Modi released around 58,000 cusecs of water into the Chenab River during the midnight hours of December 7 and 8, 2025. The sudden release was followed by a drastic reduction in flows to between 870 and 1,000 cusecs from December 13 to December 17, The News reported on Thursday.

Historical data shows that average Chenab River flows during this period over the past decade typically ranged between 4,000 and 10,000 cusecs, making the recent reduction unusually low.

Pakistani authorities said the move violated the Indus Waters Treaty, which governs water sharing between Pakistan and India. They said India first emptied and then refilled the reservoir of the Baglihar Hydropower Project, despite restrictions under the treaty that prohibit arbitrary manipulation of run of the river projects on rivers allocated to Pakistan.

The Court of Arbitration had ruled on August 8, 2025, that India’s practice of emptying and filling dams on rivers allocated to Pakistan amounted to water weaponisation and violated the treaty.

Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Mehr Ali Shah, confirmed the development and said a formal letter had been sent to his Indian counterpart. He said the correspondence reaffirmed that the treaty remains fully in force, as upheld by the Court of Arbitration.

Shah said Pakistan provided scientific evidence showing that the emptying and refilling of the Baglihar Dam was not caused by natural hydrometeorological factors but was instead the result of deliberate manipulation of water flows.

He added that the letter was issued under Articles VI and VIII of the treaty, requesting detailed water release data and calling for immediate consultations to address the serious implications of sudden and extreme variations in river flows.

It is worth noting that India had unilaterally announced the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty on April 23, 2024. However, the Court of Arbitration later clarified that the treaty could not be suspended unilaterally and remains legally binding on both countries.

Pakistan’s National Security Committee, which met a day later under the chairmanship of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, rejected India’s move and warned that any stoppage of water flows would be considered an act of war.