However, observers caution that any political benefit will hinge on how the conflict develops and its duration.
A day after Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei was reported killed in a series of US-Israeli strikes, Netanyahu credited his close coordination with Washington for enabling Israel to carry out what he described as a long-held objective to decisively strike what he called a terrorist regime.
The war in Gaza significantly dented Netanyahu’s popularity, with critics accusing him of attempting to deflect blame for failing to prevent the deadliest attack in Israel’s history.
At 76, the head of the right-wing Likud party is Israel’s longest-serving premier, having accumulated more than 18 years in office across different terms.
Despite his reputation for political durability, Netanyahu has lacked a clear parliamentary majority since the summer due to tensions with ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.
He is also on trial in a protracted corruption case and has sought a presidential pardon. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly urged President Isaac Herzog to grant clemency.
Elections are required to be held by October 27 at the latest.
Emmanuel Navon, a political analyst at Tel Aviv University, said Netanyahu is likely to call early elections, arguing that he would not wait until October given the sensitivity surrounding the anniversary of the October 7 attack.
Navon said Netanyahu, once politically weakened after the Gaza assault, has gradually regained ground. Opinion surveys indicate that Likud would finish first if elections were held now, potentially positioning Netanyahu to form the next government, though he may still fall short of a majority with his current allies.
Analysts suggest that a decisive outcome against Iran could improve his coalition prospects.
Independent geopolitical analyst Michael Horowitz told AFP that the offensive strengthens the image Netanyahu seeks to project, tied to his “total victory” message, and aligns with both his national agenda and electoral strategy.
Journalist Raviv Druker of Channel 13 argued that Netanyahu would attempt to portray the outcome as a complete victory, even if critics contend that Hamas continues to govern Gaza and that Iran’s position remains fundamentally unchanged.
On the news site Walla, journalist Ouriel Deskal suggested the timing of the hostilities may have also delayed, under emergency provisions, a March 30 deadline to pass a national budget. Failure to approve the budget by that date would have led to the government’s collapse on April 1 and triggered elections, placing Netanyahu at a disadvantage.
Navon said that a successful campaign against Iran would translate into political gains for the prime minister. However, Horowitz warned that prolonged fighting could quickly alter public sentiment.
He noted that tolerance for an extended war with mounting casualties and rising living costs is limited. During last June’s conflict, Iranian missile strikes killed 30 people in Israel, and since Saturday, 10 people have died in retaliatory attacks.
Horowitz added that recent military successes are largely credited to the armed forces and civilian resilience rather than directly to Netanyahu, with the army’s approval ratings climbing more sharply than those of the prime minister.
