The Indian Ocean is at the centre of this strategic rivalry, where China is expanding its naval capabilities, India is seeking to maintain its regional dominance, and Pakistan is playing a significant role in the balance of power through its naval capabilities.
Why Is the Indian Ocean So Important?
For India, the Indian Ocean is like its own backyard. Its trade, energy imports, extensive coastline and islands are closely connected to this maritime region. Analysts often describe the Indian Ocean as the Indian Navy’s strategic backyard, making it vital to the country’s national interests.
The Indian Ocean is equally important to China, as a substantial portion of its oil imports and trade passes through these waters, particularly the Strait of Malacca. China fears that a rival power could block this route during a potential conflict. This concern is commonly known as the Malacca Dilemma.
China’s naval strategy has also evolved. Its 2015 defence white paper called for the navy to move beyond the traditional focus on defending coastal waters and place greater emphasis on protecting its interests in the open seas.
According to Dr Sajid Mahmood Shahzad, a former commodore in the Pakistan Navy, India considers itself the dominant power in the region and is equipping its navy with an increasingly large arsenal of military hardware. However, he argues that India remains wary of Pakistan’s naval capabilities.
What Is India Afraid Of?
India’s concerns are rooted in geography and historical developments. Indian analysts have long argued that China is developing a network of ports known as the String of Pearls, which could potentially support its naval operations in the future.
The ports frequently mentioned in this context include Kyaukpyu in Myanmar, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Hambantota and Colombo in Sri Lanka, and Gwadar in Pakistan.
China maintains that these ports are commercial projects. However, some Indian observers fear that Beijing could eventually use these facilities as naval bases.
Experts point out that commercial ports cannot be transformed into military bases overnight. Nevertheless, uncertainty over their potential future use is enough to generate suspicion across the region. China’s close relationship with Pakistan further intensifies India’s concerns.
Dr Sajid Mahmood Shahzad says this situation is known in international relations as the security dilemma. It occurs when one country strengthens its military capabilities for defensive purposes, but another perceives those measures as a threat and responds by expanding its own military power.
How Does Naval Power Expand a Country’s Influence?
Naval power is not limited to warships and military operations. It is also a tool for extending diplomatic and economic influence. Maintaining a naval presence in distant waters requires access to ports, logistical facilities and supply networks.
The ideas of Alfred Thayer Mahan, a prominent naval strategist, emphasise the importance of logistics and support facilities in maintaining maritime power. Without these resources, naval vessels struggle to sustain effective operations over long distances.
To meet these needs, China has established a military base in Djibouti, while India has pursued plans to develop naval facilities on Assumption Island in Seychelles.
India has also signed agreements with France and the United States that allow the countries to access certain military and naval facilities operated by one another.
This maritime competition also affects the politics of smaller countries. Nations such as Sri Lanka can seek economic and strategic benefits by maintaining relations with both China and India.
A strong navy can help a country protect its trade routes and deter potential aggression. However, expanding naval capabilities can also deepen mistrust and increase regional tensions.
Two Ways to Reduce Tensions
Countries can take several steps to prevent maritime competition in the Indian Ocean from escalating into a direct confrontation. These include establishing naval hotlines, notifying one another before major military exercises and agreeing on common procedures for communication and conduct when naval vessels encounter each other at sea.
Combating piracy, protecting commercial shipping routes and providing assistance during natural disasters are areas in which regional countries can cooperate for mutual benefit.
Regional platforms such as the Indian Ocean Rim Association can also help reduce concerns among smaller countries by facilitating information-sharing and promoting transparency in port development projects.
Dr Sajid Mahmood Shahzad argues that China’s policy is fundamentally focused on promoting peaceful trade. In his view, Indian criticism of China reflects New Delhi’s own concerns and strategic interests.
The rivalry between China and India in the Indian Ocean does not necessarily have to end in direct confrontation. If both countries combine the expansion of their naval capabilities with diplomatic engagement and confidence-building measures, the competition could remain limited and manageable.
Ultimately, all countries in the region have an interest in ensuring that maritime trade routes remain open, safe and stable.
The balance of power in the Indian Ocean is not limited to relations between China and India. It could have wider implications for Pakistan and the entire region, affecting security, trade and diplomacy.
