The shift comes after the political downfall of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina in 2024, ending her 15 year rule. Following her removal from power, her party, the Awami League, was banned, and Hasina moved into self-imposed exile in New Delhi. Since then, the once-close relationship between Bangladesh and India has lost momentum.
China, meanwhile, has moved quickly to fill the diplomatic and economic space. Beijing has increased investments and diplomatic outreach in Bangladesh, including a defence deal to build a drone manufacturing facility near the Indian border a move that has drawn quiet attention across the region.
According to Reuters, Chinese Ambassador Yao Wen has become a familiar face in Dhaka’s political and media circles, frequently meeting politicians, senior officials, and journalists. These engagements often focus on multi-billion-dollar infrastructure projects and expanded bilateral cooperation.
China is already Bangladesh’s largest trading partner, with annual two way trade nearing $18 billion. Nearly 95 percent of Bangladesh’s imports come from China, underlining Dhaka’s heavy economic reliance on Beijing. Since Sheikh Hasina’s exit, Chinese companies have poured hundreds of millions of dollars into new investments, while no major new Indian projects have been announced.
Konstantino Xavier, a senior fellow at New Delhi based think tank Centre for Social and Economic Progress, says China is increasing its influence both in plain sight and behind closed doors, taking advantage of the current strain in India Bangladesh ties.
He adds that Beijing has also benefited from reduced U.S. engagement and the ripple effects of Donald Trump’s tariff wars, allowing China to position itself as a steady and dependable economic partner.
Some analysts believe Bangladesh will continue to lean toward China because it offers clear economic incentives and avoids sensitive domestic issues that often complicate relations with India.
Thomas Kean, senior adviser on Myanmar and Bangladesh at the International Crisis Group, warns that if Dhaka and New Delhi fail to repair relations, the next Bangladeshi government may feel strongly encouraged to push ties with Beijing even further.
Still, experts caution against reading this shift as a complete break with India. Professor Lailufar Yasmin of Dhaka University notes that Bangladesh needs both China and India to safeguard its long term interests. ‘No government,’ she says, ‘would be wise enough to ignore India entirely.’
