As tensions linked to the Iran war disrupt key shipping routes, experts warn that the ripple effects could be deeper and more personal than expected.

Svein Tore Holsether, the chief executive of Yara, has raised a stark alarm: billions of meals could vanish each week due to a shortage of fertilisers. His warning points to a simple but powerful truth no fertiliser, no food.

At the heart of the issue lies the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow yet vital route through which a large share of the world’s fertiliser ingredients usually passes. With shipping disrupted, supply chains are under strain, and the effects are already unfolding.

Holsether estimates that up to half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser are currently not being produced. That gap, he says, could translate into as many as 10 billion meals lost every single week. It’s a number that turns a distant conflict into a very real concern.

The problem doesn’t stop at supply, it grows in the fields. Without enough fertiliser, crop yields can drop sharply, sometimes by as much as 50% in just one season. For farmers, it’s a harsh equation: higher costs, lower output, and uncertain returns.

Regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America are expected to feel the pressure first. In places where farmers already use minimal fertiliser, even a small disruption can lead to a steep fall in production. The result? Less food, higher prices, and rising anxiety.

World Food Programme warns that the situation could push millions more into hunger. If the crisis continues, nearly 45 million additional people may face acute food insecurity by 2026.

There is also a looming risk of a global bidding war for food. Wealthier nations may be able to absorb rising costs, but poorer countries could be priced out, forced to watch as essential supplies slip beyond reach. In such a scenario, the burden falls hardest on those who can least afford it.

Meanwhile, consumers in countries like the UK may not face empty shelves, but they are likely to notice something else rising grocery bills. Food prices are expected to climb steadily in the coming months, turning a global issue into a household concern.

Experts like Paul Teng note that the full impact may take time to appear. Crops planted today shape the prices of tomorrow, meaning the real cost of this crisis could surface later in the year.

In a world already balancing on tight margins, this disruption is a reminder of how connected everything is. A blocked route, a missing shipment, a delayed harvest each step adds up. And in the end, it all comes down to something simple: the food on our plates.