The report notes that there is no clear, step by step plan for Cuba at this stage. However, American officials reportedly view the recent arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. forces as both a warning sign and a working example for Havana. In their view, the move was meant to send a blunt message about the possible consequences of defying Washington for too long.
U.S. officials have also held meetings in Miami and Washington with Cuban exile groups and civil society organizations. The goal, according to the report, is to identify a high ranking Cuban official who might be open to cooperation with the United States. These discussions reflect Washington’s belief that internal cracks, even small ones, could matter in a time of deep economic stress.
Earlier this month, President Donald Trump issued a direct public warning to Cuba on his social media platform, Truth Social, urging its leaders to ‘make a deal before it’s too late.’ The message was short, sharp, and clearly intended to apply pressure.
Foreign policy expert David Smith from the University of Sydney cautioned that the White House may be overestimating the power of threats alone. He pointed to Iran as an example, arguing that strong and tightly controlled governments can endure years of pressure without giving up power.
Ricardo Zuniga, a former U.S. official who was involved in the Obama era thaw between Washington and Havana, echoed this view. He said Cuba’s leadership is far more solid and harder to break than Venezuela’s, adding that there are very few people inside Cuba willing to openly side with the United States.
The desire to see the end of communist rule in Cuba has shaped U.S. policy for decades, dating back to the 1959 revolution that brought Fidel Castro to power. Past efforts have included failed covert operations such as the Bay of Pigs invasion, while the death of revolutionary figure Che Guevara is also often linked to this long struggle.
Cuba lies just 150 kilometers from the U.S. coastline, yet the political distance remains wide. Economic hardship and political control have pushed many Cubans to migrate to the United States, where the Cuban American community has grown into a powerful voting bloc. Influential figures, including U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, come from this community.
U.S. intelligence agencies believe Cuba’s economy is in severe trouble, marked by shortages of food, medicine, and electricity. Washington is reportedly considering tighter measures, including cutting off oil supplies from Venezuela and targeting Cuba’s overseas medical missions, to increase pressure on the government.
Cuban President Miguel Diaz Canel has rejected these tactics outright, stating that Cuba will not bend under pressure, threats, or force. He emphasized that the country would not accept ‘surrender or submission’ in any form.
In Havana, frequent blackouts and fuel shortages have left large parts of the city dark at night. In some neighborhoods, residents can be heard banging pots and pans after sunset a quiet but telling sign of frustration. Locals say people avoid chanting slogans out of fear and instead choose this silent form of protest.
Analysts say that while the United States is using pressure and dialogue at the same time, Cuba’s government has survived decades of harsh sanctions before. As a result, the road ahead remains uncertain, with no quick outcome in sight.
