Riyadh says Aidarous al Zubaidi, head of the Southern Transitional Council (STC), was smuggled out of Yemen under Emirati supervision after he failed to attend crisis talks in the Saudi capital, where he was expected to face pressure to abandon his separatist campaign.
The Saudi led coalition in Yemen said al Zubaidi left the southern port city of Aden, travelling by boat to the Emirati run port of Berbera in Somaliland, before flying to Mogadishu and later landing at a military airport in Abu Dhabi.
Sources close to the STC did not deny that he had fled.The episode has sharpened tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, long time allies who fought together for years in Yemen against the Iran backed Houthi movement, but who now appear to be pulling in different directions.
A missed meeting and a swift response
The crisis came to a head on Tuesday night, when al Zubaidi refused a Saudi ultimatum to board a plane from Aden to Riyadh for talks with Saudi officials.
According to Saudi sources, he reached the airport but declined to fly at the last moment, returning instead to his residence before disappearing hours later.
Saudi anger was immediate. Coalition aircraft bombed an STC military camp near Aden, and the internationally recognised Yemeni government later charged al Zubaidi with treason, formally expelling him from office.
A senior Yemeni government statement said al Zubaidi ‘would not have acted with such recklessness without direction from Abu Dhabi,’ accusing him of placing ‘personal and factional interests above the interests of the nation.’
A divided south and a collapsing campaign
Al Zubaidi’s flight appears to mark a dramatic collapse of the STC’s recent bid to assert control over southern Yemen. Only weeks earlier, the group had launched a bold expansion into the eastern governorates of Hadramaut and Al Mahra, areas that border Saudi Arabia and have long resisted domination by Aden based factions.
In a televised speech on 2 January, al Zubaidi announced a two year transition plan leading to a referendum on independence for a revived southern Yemeni state, echoing the borders of the former People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen, which existed before unification in 1990.
That move alarmed Riyadh. Saudi Arabia, which shares a long and porous border with Yemen, has consistently opposed any fragmentation of the country, fearing that new breakaway entities would create lasting instability and security threats along its frontier.
Saudi backed local militias, supported by limited airstrikes, pushed STC forces out of the eastern regions, triggering internal splits within the separatist movement. Senior commanders withdrew heavy weapons from camps in Aden, weakening al Zubaidi’s grip on the city and making it easier for Saudi-backed forces to re-enter.
UAE steps back
As pressure mounted, the UAE announced it was withdrawing its remaining military assets from Yemen, removing equipment from bases in Aden, Shabwa, Hadramaut and the Red Sea coast. Emirati officials denied helping al Zubaidi escape, insisting their actions were defensive and limited.
However, Saudi Arabia’s decision to publicly detail the alleged escape route suggests deep frustration with Abu Dhabi’s role in backing the STC, a relationship that has long strained ties between the two capitals.
Analysts say the dispute reflects a wider divergence in foreign policy. Saudi Arabia has shifted towards diplomacy, regional de escalation and economic development, while the UAE has continued to cultivate influence through alliances with local armed groups across the region.
A widening regional rivalry
The Yemen dispute is the latest flashpoint in what some observers describe as a quiet ‘Cold War’ between Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The two countries have found themselves on opposing sides in conflicts in Sudan, Somalia and Syria, and have taken different positions on relations with Israel and the future of Palestinian statehood.
While few expect a complete rupture between the Gulf neighbours, experts say the relationship has entered a more competitive and less predictable phase, with both sides increasingly willing to defend their interests forcefully.
What happens next
Saudi Arabia has promised to host a southern dialogue to address longstanding grievances in Yemen’s south, though it remains unclear whether separatist demands will be accommodated or suppressed.
For now, al Zubaidi’s sudden disappearance has left the STC leaderless and divided, and has exposed the limits of its military reach. More broadly, it has revealed how fragile alliances in Yemen and across the Middle East have become.
What began as a missed meeting has turned into a moment that lays bare a larger struggle, not only over Yemen’s future, but over who sets the rules of power in a changing region.
