Despite the country’s geographical location facing the Arabian Sea and hosting a coastline of 1,000 km and an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of over 290,000 km2 larger than several of Pakistan’s provinces the government’s realization of this potential has been slow.
While successive governments have aspired to create a 100 billion-dollar blue economy by 2047, the current performance of this sector remains far from its potential. On the occasion of World Maritime Day, this article examines Pakistan’s potential to harness the economic, strategic, and hydrocarbon potential of the region.
Maritime Pakistan: Progress and Potential
As a country with a coastline facing the Indian Ocean, Pakistan has been slow to fully realize the potential of the blue economy. Its two major ports, Karachi and Port Qasim, handle the lion’s share of Pakistan’s trade, with tens of millions of tons of cargo passing through them annually. Meanwhile, the deep-water Gwadar port, despite Chinese patronage and its formal commissioning, has so far hosted only a fraction of the cargo that passes through Karachi and Port Qasim. Recent policy changes and attempts to develop its importance as a transshipment hub have yielded only partial results as the increased competition for shipping space has made the commercial viability of Gwadar questionable.
Meanwhile, the commercial fisheries sector, which forms an integral part of Pakistan’s blue economy, has so far failed to live up to its potential. Balochistan, which hosts over 70 percent of Pakistan’s coastline, has vast opportunities in fisheries, aquaculture, and value-added products. However, mechanization, processing facilities, and other aspects remain underdeveloped. At the same time, the government has taken several steps to promote the development of Pakistan’s blue economy, including the PN Shipping Corporation’s plans to expand its fleet, promote aquaculture, and develop ship-repairing capabilities. Other steps, including new policies on fisheries and aquaculture, are also expected to contribute to the growth of the sector. Various reports have suggested that Pakistan’s blue economy could generate billions of dollars in revenues from seafood, shipping, coastal tourism, hydrocarbons in the Indus delta, EEZ, and the potential exploitation of deep-sea resources, provided that the country invests in value-added opportunities.
Constraints and Challenges in Awakening the Giant
Several factors have constrained Pakistan’s ability to fully exploit the opportunities in its blue economy. These include institutional, governance, and policy challenges, as well as infrastructure and connectivity constraints, security issues, human and financial capital, climate change and pollution, and legal and regulatory challenges. The lack of an effective institutional framework to promote Pakistan’s blue economy has hindered its growth and caused jurisdictional overlaps. Similarly, the absence of critical infrastructure such as Gwadar’s hinterland connections and cold storage facilities, limitations in digital systems such as customs procedures, and the costs associated with using Pakistani ports have constrained trade and commerce.
Meanwhile, the lack of local ownership in Balochistan and security challenges such as sabotage and attacks on critical installations have also posed security challenges. The lack of human and financial capital, combined with the absence of modern technologies and local financial instruments such as blue finance, has contributed to the poor utilization of the blue economy. Additionally, climate change has created additional stress on the region, and the lack of enforcement of regulations and rules has posed additional challenges to maritime Pakistan.
Pakistan’s Role in the Indo-Pacific
Pakistan’s geopolitical location at the crossroads of critical maritime and energy trade routes makes it a key actor in the broader Indo-Pacific region. The Arabian Sea borders Pakistan’s southern coastline, giving it access to critical maritime routes such as the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Gwadar and the CPEC maritime routes provide an alternate route for China to connect central Asia with Pakistan, bypassing the Malacca Strait. However, beyond Pakistan’s rhetoric, it has limited commercial significance.
Meanwhile, the U.S.-led Free and Open Indo-Pacific strategy and its regional security initiatives such as the Quad, AUKUS, and increasing strategic and maritime interactions with India present strategic challenges to Pakistan. While Pakistan has promoted an inclusive Indo-Pacific vision based on economic connectivity and a free and open region, it has also focused on deepening maritime ties with China, including collaboration on ports, shipping, and submarines, to promote regional stability. Additionally, Pakistan has worked to strengthen its partnerships with Gulf states, central Asian countries, and other regional players through initiatives such as the AMAN exercises and promoting various public goods such as combating piracy and enhancing security in maritime spaces.
Great power competition and balancing have constrained Pakistan’s role in the Indo-Pacific. Rising strategic and economic competition between India and China and between the U.S. and China impacts Pakistan’s ability to navigate the region without becoming excessively entangled in the great power competition. Thus, Pakistan has adopted a primarily defensive maritime strategy that targets the northern Arabian Sea to deny regional adversaries maritime supremacy while avoiding direct confrontation and strategic entanglements with either competitor.
Security Concerns in Maritime Pakistan
Pakistan has faced several traditional and non-traditional security concerns in its maritime domain. Traditional security issues involve the presence of Indian Navy and the potential for direct confrontation in the northern Arabian Sea. In addition, maritime Pakistan faces non-traditional security issues, including piracy, terrorism, and the potential for illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, smuggling, and coastal insurgency directed against Pakistan’s maritime installations and CPEC infrastructure.
At the same time, hybrid challenges such as those posed by climate change, pollution, and potential militarization of Pakistani commercial facilities and infrastructure, as well as local coastal resources, pose additional security dilemmas. Other challenges emanate from inadequate coast-guard oversight of the EEZ and the potential for conflict with local communities. Overall, these security concerns negatively impact Pakistan’s commercial viability and national interests.
Opportunities in the Indo-Pacific Region
Pakistan has several opportunities to take advantage of in the Indo-Pacific region, including its potential to position itself as a critical player in the emerging great power competition. In addition, maritime Pakistan can participate actively in non-traditional security activities such as anti-piracy patrols and promote its involvement in countering hybrid challenges to enhance its credibility in the region. By investing in blue finance, technology, and human capital, Pakistan can promote the development of its blue economy while leveraging regional and international platforms such as the AMAN exercises and maritime security talks.
In addition, building relationships with various stakeholders such as potential patrons and customers in maritime Pakistan can enhance opportunities for trade and investment. The development of alternative partnerships will also reduce Pakistan’s reliance on any one patron, with options including deepening economic and strategic ties with Gulf states, central Asian countries, and other regional actors. Additionally, Pakistan can take advantage of the CPEC-related infrastructure developments, including the new airport, Gwadar Port, and the Eastbay expressway, to facilitate transport and trade.
Moreover, opportunities exist to establish sister-port relationships and develop related hinterland infrastructure, including railway lines such as the Pakistan Railways (ML1). Such developments could provide Pakistan with several advantages, including reduced transportation costs, expanded transshipment opportunities with central Asian countries, and providing transshipment opportunities for trade moving to Pakistan via Gwadar.
Policy Measures to Awaken the Sleeping Giant
There is a need for a comprehensive approach to addressing the opportunities and constraints in maritime Pakistan. First, there is a need for an overarching maritime policy that promotes the development of the blue economy through institutional mechanisms, including enhanced federal and provincial coordination, and the establishment of an empowered maritime authority with time-bound targets in support of creating a 100 billion-dollar blue economy. In addition, there is a need for a blue finance initiative that involves sovereign and private financing, including blue bonds, to support viable projects while meeting international accreditation and standards.
Sector-specific strategies for fisheries, shipping, aquaculture, and coastal tourism, as well as other relevant sectors, will also contribute to the growth of the blue economy, with particular emphasis on value-added opportunities, control of illegal fishing, and community ownership of resources. At the same time, a security-development nexus that emphasizes the need to leverage local ownership in Balochistan, particularly in fisheries and coastal resources, as well as protect investments and facilities through enhanced security measures, is critical. Additionally, investments in human capital and research and development will enhance Pakistan’s ability to promote its blue economy.
Finally, Pakistan needs a proactive Indo-Pacific policy that emphasizes economic and strategic opportunities while considering its security concerns and promoting public goods such as security in the region. Pakistan’s geographical location grants it the status of a maritime nation. However, it must generate the political will and commitment to promote its blue economy and awaken the sleeping giant. On the occasion of the World Maritime Day, Pakistan must consider its ability to harness the economic and strategic opportunities of maritime Pakistan to become a major player in the Indo-Pacific.
Author; Naufil Shahrukh
Note: The views expressed by the blogger are personal and do not necessarily reflect the views of the institution. — Editor
