The results of the US midterm elections so far appear to be a dream scenario for President Donald Trump’s Democratic opponents, with Republicans expected to lose their majority in Congress.
The implications of these results for American domestic politics are significant. However, political changes in a powerful country like the United States can also affect the rest of the world.
In Pakistan, the developments have raised questions about whether the political shift expected to take effect in January could influence relations between Islamabad and Washington. If so, what might those implications be? Similar questions are also being raised in India.
American analyst Michael Kugelman, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, has also weighed in on the debate.
He believes that Democratic control of Congress could lead to increased scrutiny of Trump and his family’s business dealings, potentially creating difficulties for Pakistan, which has placed considerable expectations on business and economic cooperation with the Trump administration.
In a statement on X, Kugelman wrote that Trump’s close ties with Pakistan could also come under pressure, partly because of concerns about human rights and political repression in the country.
However, he believes the intensity of congressional opposition may remain limited because of Pakistan’s strategic importance and its mediating role during the Iran war.
The debate is also gaining attention in Pakistan, where various political and policy circles are discussing the potential implications of changes in American policy.
According to BBC journalist Kayla Epstein, a shift in the balance of power in Washington does not mean Democrats will immediately be able to implement their agenda without obstacles.
Even if Democrats secure majorities in both chambers of Congress, President Donald Trump will retain his veto power over legislation. Congress can override a presidential veto with a two-thirds majority.
The new Congress is scheduled to begin its work on January 3, 2027. Until then, the current Congress will remain in office. Even after the new Congress takes over, Trump will retain substantial executive powers during the remaining two years of his presidency.
Democratic gains are being viewed as a political setback for Trump’s foreign policy, but they do not necessarily signal an immediate major shift in American foreign relations.
Trump will continue to exercise executive authority, although he could face greater political resistance over legislation, budgets and congressional oversight once the new Congress takes office.
For Pakistan, the key question will be whether it can establish relations with the United States on a more institutional and long-term basis.
If bilateral ties remain centred on personal connections with the Trump administration and specific business opportunities, their direction could change with shifts in American politics.
However, stronger institutional links in defence cooperation, regional security, trade and diplomacy could improve the prospects for continuity.
The US midterm results therefore present Pakistan with a long-term diplomatic challenge rather than an immediate crisis: Can Islamabad move beyond the political priorities of a single American president and build a sustainable partnership with the United States as a state?
Why Is Pakistan Concerned?
Pakistan has made efforts in recent months to improve relations with the Trump administration by expanding cooperation across several areas.
These include mineral resources and investment, cryptocurrency, trade, defence ties and Pakistan’s diplomatic role during the Iran war.
According to American analyst Michael Kugelman, Democratic control of Congress could lead to greater scrutiny of the Trump administration’s commercial diplomacy and the business dealings of people close to the president.
This could also affect business arrangements with Pakistan that have already been concluded or are under consideration.
Journalist and analyst Baqir Sajjad also considers the developments significant for Pakistan.
In a post on X, he wrote that a prominent aspect of Pakistan’s relationship with Trump involves personal partnerships linked to military ties, mineral resources and cryptocurrency.
He believes this model could face greater scrutiny following Democratic gains.
According to Sajjad, Trump will retain substantial executive powers, but the political space available to him is narrowing.
He also believes the two months before the new Congress takes office could be particularly important.
However, there is another perspective in the debate: Should Pakistan-US relations be viewed solely through the lens of Trump’s personality and his close associates?
According to Raza Haroon, commercial and business partnerships between governments, including mutual economic dependence, are neither unusual nor inherently problematic.
In a post on X, he argued that Trump is the president of the United States and his administration represents the American government.
Therefore, establishing and promoting commercial and business ties between Pakistan and the United States is a normal part of diplomacy.
Is a Major Change in Pakistan-US Relations Likely?
Dr Owais Saleem, an associate professor in the Department of Communication and Media at Lamar University in the United States, believes the midterm election results are unlikely to have an immediate and significant impact on relations with Pakistan.
Speaking to BBC News Urdu, he said voters’ priorities in the elections were primarily domestic issues, particularly the economy, inflation and the economic consequences of the Iran war.
He noted that Trump had also promised during the 2024 presidential election to improve the economy, lower the prices of essential goods and end wars.
However, the Iran war increased pressure on the American economy and household expenses, contributing to political losses for the Republican Party.
According to Dr Owais Saleem, Democrats will also remain primarily focused on domestic issues such as healthcare, inflation and the economy.
He said efforts to contain the Iran war or withdraw from it could become among their key foreign policy priorities.
Nevertheless, he believes a major shift in US relations with Pakistan is unlikely because both major political parties in Washington recognise the need to maintain communication with Islamabad.
He pointed out that the situation in Afghanistan could become unstable at any time, while Pakistan also holds geographical and defence significance in the United States’ strategic competition with China.
According to Dr Owais Saleem, communication between Pakistani and American military leaderships and defence cooperation could continue because these ties are not limited to a particular US president or political party.
However, he believes Pakistan should not expect financial assistance or exceptional trade concessions from the United States as it did in the past.
America’s own economic challenges and domestic priorities will also remain important factors.
Could India Benefit?
Beyond Pakistan-US relations, the midterm election results could also have regional implications for Washington’s relationship with India.
According to Michael Kugelman, the Trump administration’s immigration and visa policies have affected US-India relations.
Democratic control of Congress could lead to efforts to change these policies, potentially helping improve people-to-people ties between the two countries.
An X user named Luke Cloud has also highlighted the differences between Pakistan and India in this context.
According to him, Trump’s political setback is unlikely to significantly affect India’s policies because its partnership with the United States does not depend on the political position of a single American president.
He believes Pakistan faces a different situation because Islamabad has invested considerably in its relationship with the Trump administration, making political changes in Washington more consequential for the country.
However, Dr Owais Saleem believes a major change in US-India relations is also unlikely.
He said India remains a large market and an important strategic partner, ensuring that its significance for Washington will continue.
According to him, the United States will seek to maintain a balance in its relations with both Pakistan and India.
Ultimately, the midterm election results may test the durability of Pakistan’s recent diplomatic gains in Washington. While Trump’s remaining presidency could provide Islamabad with opportunities to maintain existing cooperation, the longer-term challenge will be to build relations that can withstand political changes in the United States.
